Majority of Californians say they'd vote for same-sex marriage

Updated

This just in from the LA Times:

If a vote similar to Proposition 8 upholding a ban on same-sex marriage were held tomorrow, a majority of Californians say they would cast ballots in favor of allowing gay and lesbian couples to marry, according to a survey released Wednesday.

The poll was conducted in English and Spanish by the Washington, D.C.-based nonprofit Public Religion Research Institute....

One in four Californians reported that their views on rights for gay and lesbian people had become more supportive over the last five years, compared with 8% who said they had become more opposed, the poll revealed.
...
A total of 51% of Californians said they would vote to allow homosexuals to marry if a vote similar to Proposition 8 were held tomorrow, compared with 45% who said they would vote to keep same-sex marriage illegal, the survey showed.
...
The poll highlighted shifting attitudes within the black community, divisions among Latinos, the influence of the clergy on parishioners and insights into the role of religion in shaping the Proposition 8 debate.

Read it all.

Addendum. Take note of the sobering thoughts and links in the first comment below.

Addendum 2. Press release from California Faith for Equality: "We now have data supporting our conviction that religion can be a positive force for marriage equality."

Posted by John B. Chilton on July 21, 2010 4:51 PM | |
Comments (3)

All well and good, but in May 2008, the numbers were identical: 51% supported marriage equality in California. It's why we thought we wouldn't lose but 6 months later, Prop8 passed.

A more sobering view of the numbers at the SF Chronicle, which discusses the history.

Additionally, a recent study showed that polls routinely overstate support for equality, and understate the opposition.

We need the numbers to be substantially more robust than the flimsy 51 before we can win at the polls.

Susan Forsburg

Posted by IT [TypeKey Profile Page] | July 21, 2010 7:00 PM

I suspect that the antis are more intensely motivated to go out and vote.

Posted by Paul Davison [TypeKey Profile Page] | July 21, 2010 9:12 PM

Susan is right in that a persistent problem in surveys is the tendency to give socially acceptable answers. That person throwing a cigarette butt out the window surely will agree that littering is wrong and tell a pollster that he does not litter.

Add in a robust political campaign and the secrecy of the voting booth and you've got lots of chance for movement in those numbers.

Michael Rich

Posted by Padre Michael [TypeKey Profile Page] | July 22, 2010 12:00 PM

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