Furedi's points don't seem to me very solid. He's almost an Apocalypse denier. An apocalypse indeed approaches, the question is how fast. The seas are rising and demand for oil, the lifeblood of industrial civilization, is fast exceeding stagnant supplies. He does point to a third horseman: "today’s future-frightened public debate about economics seems more interested in finding ways to transform capitalism into a carbon-free, green-leaning system than in discussing the steps we need to take to minimise the destructive impact of a global recession on people’s lives and aspirations." Yes, a recession is beginning, one that some think will become a Depression to rival the last one. But the "public debate" isn't really public -- the people on top trying to find a story-line to keep the public quiet and ill-informed. They've made a mess of things but still are determined to stay on top.

People already are having to choose between heat and food in some places. Furedi is right that we need urgently to deal with problems in the here-and-now. Unfortunately, those problems -- climate change, economic collapse, and the end of cheap energy -- bode conditions deserving of the name Apocalypse.

If you want apocalypse-mongering, read James Howard Kunstler every Monday morning:

http://jameshowardkunstler.typepad.com/clusterfuck_nation/2007/12/forecast-for-20.html

Kunstler's predictions seem likely to come true -- the question is when, and how prepared will we be.

- Murdoch Matthew

How imminent are the coming crises? A poster on The Oil Drum blog says they may be closer than he thought. Here's his conclusion. See the whole argument at

http://anz.theoildrum.com/node/3377#more

THE FAILURE OF NETWORKED SYSTEMS

Posted by aeldric on January 6, 2008 - 10:00am in TOD: Australia/New Zealand

There are those among the Peak Oil community who suspect that we could be facing a failure of our interdependent society that may be sudden, profound, and complete. I have repeatedly said that I am not numbered among them. My opinion is that our way of life will have to change significantly, but slowly. I don’t expect to be clubbing anybody with a femur in any foreseeable future. This opinion is on record in both print and electronic media, and I don’t expect to be issuing a retraction any time soon.... but a recent event forced me to admit that I may have to hedge a little.

. . . . .

The oil production system can certainly crash, but it would be a crash in slow motion.

The only part of the system that can crash quickly is the financial system. The financial system provides monitoring, communication, maintenance and upgrades. So a profound, complete crash in this area could conceivably bring down the whole network.

However, could such a financial crash occur? An immediate halt to oil production would require a crash far more profound than the Great Depression. The response speed of our financial system has been improved by linking many of the sub-systems electronically, but there are still a number of choke points, circuit breakers, and sanity checks. The Great Depression emerged over a period of months or years. Even with the electronic linkages in place today, a complete breakdown of our financial institutions is unlikely to happen overnight.

If this system crashes overnight, it will be because the plug got pulled – a breakdown of society external to the system.

The natural frequency for events in the oil and oil-substitute network is in the range of months at least, or more likely years. Internal stresses cannot cause it to crash overnight.

The Breadth of a crash

The breadth of the crash depends on the degree of linkage and the degree to which each part of the network is loaded. This is where I start to worry.

Oil appears to be at or near peak capacity - exports are dropping. As for the food network - world grain reserves are at historic lows, and expected to drop a little more next year. And the environment? Climate change is clearly with us, indicating that the environment has already gone past its capacity.

When looked at in these terms it appears that the network is already in decline. Each of these three parts of the network is at or past capacity. If a span of years is the natural time-frame for a crash in this system, then it seems quite plausible that we are watching a very broad-based crash of our energy systems - right now.

Our actions in increasing the connections to the food and environment networks will not help, and may simply speed the crash.

The signals indicating the start of a crash would be seen in the monitoring and communication system – the financial systems. Prices for oil would go up. Which we have seen… Prices for food would go up. Which we have seen....We might expect perturbations, volatility, and attempts to “price” the environment.... Hmmmm.

Conclusion

I am forced to concede that a broad-based collapse is a possibility. I still maintain that a sudden collapse is unlikely, but if it is already happening, then it could certainly look sudden when we eventually notice it.
------------------

Murdoch Matthew
husband of Gary

Regarding the "public debate" Furedi disparages, Sara Robinson at the Orcinus blogspot tells better than I did what's wrong:

"The deep and growing contempt Americans -- left and right -- have for the Bush White House, the Democratic Congress, and the mainstream media is rooted in our fury that we still can't even get the people in charge of managing the status quo to talk about the problems we face in any kind of open and honest way. The environment, working conditions, foreign policy, health care -- whatever we care about most, these so-called "leaders" will almost mechanically distort, distract, dismiss, evade, elide, spin, ridicule, or simply ignore it. It's not a democratic dialogue; it's ossified elites issuing edicts that the lumpenproles will obey to their own detriment. As long as the conversation goes only one direction, we have ample reason to fear that whatever changes lie ahead will have very little to do with restoring the common good."

Murdoch
Spouse of Gary