ACNA numbers already plummeting?
Daniel Burke of Religion News Service notes that the Anglican Church in North America's numbers have dropped sharply. And it is only a day old.
[W]hat about those 100,000 members that ACNA claims? Shortly after it launched, the group actually lowered that number to 81,311 people in the pews every Sunday. In June, ACNA lowered that number again to 69,197.For some context, the Episcopal diocese with the largest average Sunday attendance in 2007 was Virginia, with 25,300.
It's not unusual for membership numbers to be much higher than average Sunday attendance. But that usually happens in large, longstanding churches, like the Episcopal Church, which may have people on the membership rolls who stopped attending church long ago, or who are Easter-Christmas attenders only. One would assume that in a new church committed to orthodoxy, the gap between average Sunday attendance and membership would be quite a bit smaller.
As religion reporters know, we're often at the mercy of religious groups' self-reported membership numbers. And with a group like ACNA, which aims to unite almost a dozen small splinter groups, the task of counting is even harder. For instance, there are some congregations that ACNA counts as members that are still part of the Episcopal Church. So are they counted as part of ACNA's 100,000, or the Episcopal Church's 2.1 million?
Quite a few people have said ACNA is worth paying attention to because of that 100K figure. But does 69,000 have the same cachet?
The ACNA folks have done the honorable thing here, though it took them a while to do so. Now it is time for all of the academic experts quoted in some of the stories on the Anglican split to own up to the fact that they have not the vaguest idea of whether this new church is growing or not. Any takers?

Honorable? Perhaps.
Or perhaps it's just good for credibility to get the unpleasant facts out early.
And they've been crowing about rapid growth for months. It's easy to grow from a small base. Especially if you reset the base to a lower number.
Posted by John B. Chilton
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June 23, 2009 2:48 PM
What a ridiculous post. ACNA was just founded not 24 hours ago and you're already spreading lies about its decline? Up until now it's been a loose, hard to measure, confederation of Christians living in fear of having their churches they built stolen by the powers that be in DC and New York. Your statements are more fitting for a 16th century roman bishop, bitter that the catholic church no longer controls the life of the multitudes of newly formed protestants. Don't be so petty.
Posted by Spencer Waggoner
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June 23, 2009 4:16 PM
Spencer, the headline is a joke, as even a casual reading of the sentence that begins: "The ACNA folks have done the honorable thing here..." makes clear.
Posted by Jim Naughton
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June 23, 2009 4:20 PM
ACNA's numbers of bishops and archbishops are certainly growing...former Episcopal priests are becoming bishops in a steady rate...
;)
Peter+
Posted by Peter Carey
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June 23, 2009 7:36 PM
A rule of thumb is one third of a mainline denomination's members attend church on any given Sunday. 69,197 x 3 = 207,591 members. However this doesn't factor in newness, enthusiasm, initial committment and ratio of bishops and priests to laity that for a while may raise ACNA percentage.
Posted by Paul Woodrum
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June 24, 2009 9:37 AM
It seems that my earlier comment on TEC's less than accurate statisticts has been deleted. I believe I was challenged to give an example.
Here is one. St. James Newport Beach. They left TEC in the early 2000's. Their membership, pledge and plate and ASA have all been steady - no change - since 2003.
http://12.0.101.92/reports/PR_ChartsDemo/exports/ParishRPT_624200993423PM.pdf
YBIC,
Phil Snyder
Posted by Phil Snyder
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June 24, 2009 9:38 PM
Phil,
I removed your earlier comment becaue you made an allegaton and didn't back it up in a timely fashion. Now you have provided one example to support a sweeping allegation. Do you know for a fact that the Diocese of Los Angeles counts these figures when calculating its average Sunday attendance? Are you familiar with the reporting guidelines for parochial reports? I am not. So you may have a point here. Or you may not. But if I were going to claim that MBsIC were being dishonest, I think I'd do that bit of due diligence.
Posted by Jim Naughton
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June 24, 2009 11:03 PM
Jim,
I don't know whether DLA counts those numbers, but I suspect they do. The TEC website numbers come from the Parochial Reports. I don't know what happens when a church stops sending its parochial reports. This may simply be an example of that. But I would hope that DLA would know that those parishes that left did not have the same ASA/Membership/P&P and turn in zero because they are no longer members of TEC or attending a TEC congregation.
After the lawsuit dust has settled and the diocese has a new rector and a new congregation in those parishes (or sells the buildings, if it can in this market) then the numbers should take on a more realistic view, but that could take a while.
YBIC,
Phil Snyder
Posted by Phil Snyder
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June 24, 2009 11:26 PM
Spencer: The churches they built?
By 'church,' are you referring to the physical plant, or the community of believers worshiping together?
The physical plant is owned by TEC / the diocese in trust for the parish (member of TEC / that diocese). And unless I'm mistaken, the physical church building in most parishes was built either a) by TEC initially as a mission, or b) was built with the contributions of previous generations of worshipers who were building an Episcopal church, not an ACNA church (and probably still received generous support fromn TEC).
My parish (Old St. Paul's, Baltimore) recently discussed this issue in our Sunday morning Forum. I think almost all of us agreed a congregation who feels they need to leave the Church, also needs to leave behind the (physical) church. So far, the courts have agreed.
The 'powers that be'--i.e., TEC--are worried about having the churches they helped to build stolen by schismatic parishes who want to run off with church property. When the Methodists started, the Wesleys had their meetings in people's homes, until they gained enough momentum to build churches of their own; they didn't steal churches from the C of E.
Also, think about it this way: in most cases, a majority of the congregation (and their rector) voted to leave the Episcopal Church. But a majority is not all. Why should those who want to remain Episcopalian be penalized, in having to raise money to build a new church, just because some of their fellow parishioners want to leave to form ACNA. If you want to build a new Church, you can also build a new (physical) church.
As far as the numbers go...
A group that broke off from TEC out of a deep-seated fear of moving forward with the rest of the church doesn't seem like one that's going to grow in the future. A society for religious anachronism like ACNA is setting itself up to fall victim to attrition from the very beginning.
Posted by Jason Lewis
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June 25, 2009 4:33 PM